Election Watch Number two
The polls are starting to get closer and a number of pundits are starting to suggest that the LNP could get up. See Larvatus Prodeo, The Poll Bludger, or Pineapple Party Time, as well as many other sites and blogs.
The themes on all of them are pretty similar: voter disengagement, Anna Bligh not clicking with electorate, and—especially—the curse of long-time incumbency. I don’t know, these all sound plausible, but I’m not a pollster.
But I wonder whether they’ve all forgotten one thing. A senior colleague whose opinions I value mentioned that no one was talking about the Flegg Factor. Dr Bruce Flegg is the state member for Moggill, and was Liberal Leader during the 2006 State election, and ran a campaign that pretty much stumbled from one gaffe to the next. (Read about it on the Poll Budger Electorate Guide).
Such was the debacle that the Coalition was left virtually unelectable, and this could account for some of the swing to Labor at that election. If you take account of the Flegg Factor, so the argument goes, the two parties are a lot closer than they appear on paper.